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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | April 22, 2014 - 3:28 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not only a big drop in Gold Tuesday, but a break to new lows. Crude Oil joined in, too, although not yet triggering a sell signal. Perhaps that explains why Currencies haven’t much budged… yet.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s gap down was recovered to fill the gap back to Monday’s close, which wasn’t much higher, but at least its attraction above was neutralized so that a drive to fresh lows would be more credible.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday held within the recent range above the pattern’s 1.3795 support, becoming a little less likely for its initial break to be false and temporary.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Momentary strength Tuesday up to 1293.10 was rejected on the way to fresh lows under 1276.00, probing under April’s lows. now requiring bounces to hold 1285.00 for the decline to extend to 1265.00 and 1256.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t exploit the neutralized retest of the low. But neither did it trend down with Gold, maintaining its bottoming potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday extended Monday’s reaction down from testing higher prior lows at 134-10 to fresh lows at 133-14, still targeting at least 133-06 so long as 134-00 now holds as resistance.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness extended down intraday to suggest the rally’s 104.00 target had held (105.00 basis May). June’s discount has all but disappeared. A bounce above 102.65 would be likely to launch the next downleg, so long as 103.10 then held as resistance. Just extending down without first bouncing wouldn’t be very credible.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow inside day didn’t offer any new clues, other than to further suggest that an outstanding corrective dip is inhibiting the rally effort.

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Posted in Daily Spot