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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | April 28, 2014 - 3:35 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies had been ranging sideways and narrowly for a couple of weeks, seemingly ignoring all about them who were losing their heads. They’ve finally started trying to trend, just ahead of FOMC, BOE/ECB, and NFP.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Currencies finally broke out of their ranging. The breaks came too late to assume they are false, but there is room for the Dollar index down to 79.55 regardless, if not also new lows under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The extended narrow ranging finally broke, and it was higher. It is too late in the pattern to assume the breakout is false, but the breakout attempt should test 1.3885 above regardless of its ultimate resolution, and potentially also 1.3915.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back into Thursday’s range bounced from 1292.00 to 1299.00. The dip and relatively shallow recovery still undermine the near-term recovery potential without a deeper dip first testing 1285.00-1289.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy ranging around 19.75 failed Monday to reverse the trend up, but also kept alive the recovery potential.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down tested lower prior highs at 134-18 down to the 134-10 pullback limit and recovered both back above 134-26. I would expect fresh highs to be tested so long as 134-18 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Narrow ranging on Monday didn’t offer any better timing to resolving the current pullback from 104.00, which can still be retested up to 104.50.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday retested last week’s highs around 4.80 and held. Back under 4.71 would trigger a deeper drop, but there is no assurance of even attempting to trigger it.

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Posted in Daily Spot