Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The various percolation continued Tuesday, ahead of this week’s FOMC, BOE, ECB and NFP.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s opening surge and its subsequent retest held a 61.8% retracement back to the range’s week-old high. There’s a little room higher for noise, but otherwise no reason to further delay resuming Monday’s break through the range’s lower-end and then extend back to 79.55 and under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down extended to retrace 61.8% of the recent range from Monday’s probe above it. That should be the bounce’s peak if Monday’s break lower was not a false break, and if it will resume and extend to 1.3885 and 1.3915.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The deeper dip targeting 1285.00-1289.00 didn’t wait long at all to be met. Neither did its reaction back. The dip took place Monday night, and the bounce back to 1300.00 was fulfilled through the open. That was too quick. Closing above 1303.00 would be credible for launching a new upleg, but any delay is likelier to drift back down to 1285.00, and possibly through it.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing from Tuesday’s gap down stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close, which doesn’t reverse momentum up, but reflects patient buyers.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Perhaps Tuesday’s gap down was just defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news. Regardless, it trended back up from the opening tick, and managed to close back above the 134-10 pullback limit. While the gap down isn’t necessarily bullish, the recovery does keep alive the attraction to at least probe a fresh high.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A bounce Tuesday to 102.20 was retraced almost entirely back down to Monday’s 100.80-100.90 close. There is no room or time for further delaying a more substantial bounce targeting a retest of April’s highs above 104.00, or else a deeper decline could gain traction.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up to prior highs testing 4.80 firmed throughout the day to 4.85, clearly avoiding any sell signal. This setup in this market can extend indefinitely while leaving plenty of unfinished business below outstanding, so I would not try to short the strength.

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