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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | April 30, 2014 - 2:59 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s volatility is within a recent range, while Currencies are volatile around their recent ranges. But each reflects very divergent opinion in the markets, likely to launch trends.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s retracement back into the range needed to reverse back down without delay to maintain the signal triggered by Monday’s break, and Wednesday’s gap down complied. A second consecutive lower close would now confirm the pattern targeting 79.55 and under 79.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s breakout targeting 1.3885 and 1.3915 was retraced back into the range Tuesday, and then resumed immediately Wednesday as the pattern required in order to remain valid. Now a second consecutive higher close would confirm.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s quick bounce from testing 1285.00-1289.00 support was too optimistic to be bullish. An overnight drop retracing the the bounce proved as much, and its reaction up was also retraced intraday. Closing above 1303.00 would be bullish, but meanwhile an eventual drop under 1285.00 resuming the decline has become likely.

Silver July Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s dip further below 19.75 makes a retest of Friday’s 19.04 opening gap down likely at some point in this leg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce up to 134-30 confirmed that Tuesday’s drop which held the 134-10 pullback limit was only a detour on the way to new highs above 135-10. The next confirmation? New highs above 135-10.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Dipping Wednesday to 99.35 after Tuesday’s failed surge above 102.00 doesn’t help to resume the bounce for a retest of the highs above 104.00. The reversal down is probably premature to launch a new downleg, at least this dip, so I have no signal either way at this time.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s dip was recovered back up to Tuesday’s highs, positioned to greet Thursday’s EIA report without much pessimism.

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Posted in Daily Spot