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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 13, 2014 - 2:27 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is crude oil finally making its move? That move is assumed to be up, in-line with ongoing expectations to retest recent highs. But look out below if Tuesday’s rally attempt were to fail immediately.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having consolidated the prior two sessions’ drop on Monday, Tuesday resumed the decline. At least one more fresh high in the sequence is likely.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s muted strength only consolidated the decline, which resumed aggressively into Tuesday’s open. The afternoon’s fresh lows suggest follow-through on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the three-day sequence suggests that a lower low on Wednesday would finish to close positive.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s test of 1303.00 resistance was retraced down to 1289.00 support overnight. It held a retest at Tuesday’s open to launch an intraday bounce to 1299.00. Breaking beyond either end of the range is still likely to extend about $10 in that direction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s subdued narrow ranging suggested that a fresh high remains likely, presumably to test 19.75, before a reversal down could be credible. Closing above 19.75 would signal a new rally leg underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
My criticism of Monday’s break under the 135-16 sell signal was that it wasn’t very aggressive, despite extending to 135-05. Tuesday’s bounce up to 136-00 confirmed as much. The sell signal’s leve remains unchanged.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight strength to 101.00 held its dip as support after gapping up, then extended higher intraday in what has been the best attempt off recent lows to launch a rally leg.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s 4.41 target was met overnight and reacted up at Tuesday’s open. The opening bounce failed and new lows printed intraday. Potential for extending to 4.24 so long as 4.44 now holds as resistance.

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Posted in Daily Spot