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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 29, 2015 - 3:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday”s narrowly ranging session created no signal. Bottoming still gets a benefit of the doubt, but there is currently no signal either way.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday to 1271.00 and extended down to 1255.00, losing $33 intraday, makes the topping pattern unlikely to probe a fresh high before the downleg begins. This IS the downleg. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm at least 1229.00 is in-play, if not also the 1190.00 area.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday and extending sharply lower may fulfill the outstanding requirement to probe new lows, before neutralizing the recent high”s ineffectual pessimism. Closing back above 17.28 would put the high”s retest back into play.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s surge was corrected Thursday, but not rejected, and not confirmed. Gapping down left outstanding a retest of Wednesday”s 151-14 close. A fresh high remains possible, presumably visiting 151-28, before a reversal down would be credible. Closing under 149-14 would signal a reversal down underway already anyway.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday”s probe of fresh lows didn”t extend down. Wednesday”s close was still being tested at Thursday”s close, so Wednesday”s breakout was not confirmed. Again. That”s not a buy signal, and the sequence can repeat indefinitely, but it does undermine the decline”s momentum.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report was greeted from the least strong position possible, while still having some strength. That didn”t prevent reacting down to a new low.. There is no immediate buy signal, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm a breakout..

Posted in Daily Spot