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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A volatile week for futures is greeting the weekend with many markets seemingly on the verge of resolving recent trending and targets.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Dipping Thursday didn’t extend down, but it narrowly avoided being recovered high enough to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close. That pessimism does leave the door open to probing a fresh high, and doesn’t require a fresh high to be rejected.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s inside day bounced and ranged sideways, but it is not a buy signal. A probe under Wednesday’s low remains possible, but could easily hold and reverse back up more substantially. That said, not rejecting fresh lows almost immediately would be vulnerable to extending the decline into the weekend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday reacted up into Wednesday’s range before dipping again, enough to neutralize the attraction to the open’s gap down. A second higher bounce actually filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. But the session ultimately only ranged around the decline’s 1256.00 target that was met already Wednesday. There is no new signal, although back above 1260.00 would at least be vulnerable to a corrective bounce testing 1275.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two consecutive sessions of holding a test of 19.05 support wasn’t going to prevent breaking lower, only make a break lower less likely to extend down. In fact, Thursday’s opening gap down under prior lows to 18.80 was recovered back into positive territory testing 19.05. There is no new signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs Thursday at 139-03 didn’t maintain positive territory to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. No more higher close is required. But reversing the trend down requires closing under 137-27.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday night’s weakness narrowly avoided fulfilling its potential to 102.40 by 20 cents before reversing up sharply through Thursday to attack 104.00, targeting a retest of the 104.50 high.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A blip-up during the EIA release was only several pennies, as was its retracement back into negative territory. There is no new signal to the pattern.

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