Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The Euro and Pound were modestly weaker Monday, but other currencies broke lower, driving the Dollar index above prior highs. RSIs deteriorated upon probing fresh highs, which is not a sell signal, but does help a dip back under support to extend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Price action was among the least volatile currencies Monday, but still depressed throughout the day as last week’s low was retested. No new sponsorship for the decline was detected, so probing lower Tuesday might find too much pessimism being expressed so close to Thursday’s ECB and BOE decisions.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s plunge consolidated into Monday, ranging narrowly around the 1244.00 target that was tested Friday. The 1248.00 resistance held a test intraday, leaving the door open to a fresh low at 1236.50 which would satisfy all calculable selling pressure without a corrective bounce.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s inside day began by gapping up and peaked upon touching four-week old “higher prior lows” at 18.86. Bounces have room up to 19.05 without invalidating last week’s break lower. Momentum doesn’t reverse up without also recovering 19.20.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s 138-10 high extended back to the 136-08 buy signal that had produced it. There is no bullish reason to retrace this deeply or to revisit this area, so any bounce would now be likely to fail and to produce a new downleg. And bounces could peak as low as 136-18.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s bounce was appropriately timed for not delaying another recovery attempt after Friday’s dip back down to 102.40. But the bounce disappeared into Monday’s open and reversed into negative territory to 102.10. A recovery isn’t entirely discounted without yet decisively breaking under 102.40, which was being tested as resistance into the close, but a recovery has become more difficult without yet being obvious through Tuesday’s open.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firmed Monday to recover a little more of the reaction down from Thursday’s EIA report, back up to 4.61 resistance. Enough time has passed since then that stopping short of touching Thursday’s high is considered pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

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