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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 4, 2014 - 10:20 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Publication note: Thursday’s issue should keep its normal schedule, but Friday’s will come much after the close. Thank you for your patience Tuesday and Wednesday!

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s drop had retraced 61.8% of the surge to fresh highs. Wednesday’s bounce filled the gap back to the high close, testing 80.65. It’s an interesting spot to be greeting Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements, having neutralized the attraction above, without creating any new objective either above or below. The first trending attempt or knee-jerk reaction will be suspicious.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dip filled the gap back down to Monday’s close around 1.3600.  It’s an interesting spot to be greeting Thursday’s BOE and ECB announcements, having neutralized the attraction below, without creating any new objective either above or below. The first trending attempt or knee-jerk reaction will be suspicious.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The calm is eerie after having plunged into the weekend, and then extending lower into the new week, with Thursday’s BOE and ECB decisions just hours away.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Three consecutive sessions have ranged narrowly within Friday’s range, probably a false bravado that won’t avoid a fresh low either in immediate reaction to Thursday’s BOE and ECB decisions, or else in resolution to a knee-jerk reaction up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The drop extended to 135-00 Wednesday, now being more likely to extend down at an accelerated pace, and less likely to recover. Regardless, the path remains down so long as 136-18 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up Wednesday to 103.15 and extending higher to test 103.70 also filled the gap back to last Thursday’s close. Its natural resistance reversed the afternoon to fill the gap back down Tuesday’s close around 102.50. I’d like to say that at least 102.40 held, but it wasn’t even touched. That optimism might prove to be a lost cause, so be prepared for trending down to fresh lows Thursday and into the weekend.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming slightly Wednesday was all it took to retest the ~4.65 knee-jerk reaction high to last Thursday’s EIA report. A positive and durable reaction remains the likeliest scenario.

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Posted in Daily Spot