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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 16, 2014 - 2:59 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight A number of overnight moves were not evident from intraday action, having been retraced before Monday’s open. None retraced enough to reverse momentum in the opposite direction, suggesting that any trending attempted Sunday night will be repeated before reversals can develop.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s dip to 80.50 could serve as the pullback’s low, but extending under 80.45 would signal a new downleg had begun.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Firming Monday held 1.3580 and stopped short of reversing momentum up, leaving potential to retest recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite rallying overnight to 1281.00 resistance, the corrective bounce’s 1274.00 limit was retraced as support. Monday’s opening gap may attract price higher eventually, but extending back down any further Tuesday should trigger a retest of the recent lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight highs probing a nickel above 19.82 resistance weren’t repeated intraday. But the post-0pen dip into negative territory was recovered back to the open’s gap up. There is now no unfinished business above.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh bounce highs reached only 136-10 before faltering Monday, leaving potential to 136-18 that still inhibits a new downleg from launching. An FOMC decision and quarterly chairman Q&A is one day away.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An unchanged situation in the Middle East over the weekend kept Monday’s open unchanged from last week’s close. Monday’s action wasn’t volatile, slipping from 107.45 resistance to 106.75 support. The first break either way would be suspicious until confirmed by a second consecutive close.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh high overnight tested 4.80, but reversed down intraday back under the 4.71 pullback limit. Its recovery wasn’t maintained, closing back under 4.71. The rally must resume without delay Tuesday to avoid a deeper dip to 4.61.

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Posted in Daily Spot