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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s FOMC news tried injecting volatility into an environment that wasn’t lacking it.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s gap down was shallow, and even a volatile reaction to the FOMC news barely changed the index’s direction.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday to test 1.3580 resistance helped to position the FOMC reaction to test 1.3600, but it was retraced back down to 1.3550 and still hasn’t triggered a recovery.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s recovery had already extended slightly Wednesday morning. The FOMC news shook things up a little, spiking down to 1266.50 but 1274.00 still attracted price back up to it and held as resistance.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery extended Wednesday to retest the 19.82 bounce objective that had been tested only before Tuesday’s old signal the trend reversing back down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early weakness was already being recovered when FOMC news triggered a bounce back up toward Monday’s 136-10 high, with potential for testing the original 136-18 bounce limit.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows probed under the 106.00 lower prior highs whose test Monday had triggered a bounce. The bounce didn’t probe fresh highs, so Wednesday’s lower low is only a threat. But closing under 105.70 would get every benefit of the doubt for having reversed the trend down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to test 4.76 resistance didn’t prevent returning to 4.71 support, and through it to attack the 4.61 pullback limit. The pessimism ahead of Thursday’s EIA report may be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

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