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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 10, 2014 - 2:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap up ranged narrowly sideways back to Wednesday’s 80.25 high, but no higher. Closing any higher would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but there is no active setup at this stage.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Delaying the bounce from last week’s lows had two effects. One effect was to make almost the entire move in one day. The other effect was to quickly collapse back to the bounce’s origin, back to last week’s lows. There is no actionable parameter at this stage.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge to test 1332.00 extended higher overnight to 1346.00. Thursday’s reaction down avoided testing 1332.00 as support by about $4. Holding it would maintain potential for extending to 1352.00. Closing under 1326.00 would signal that momentum was reversing down, likely to test and then break under 1313.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recent underperformance vs. Gold was all but corrected in Wednesday night’s attack on 21.65. Back under 21.25 would signal the breakout was false, and closing back under 21.20 would start to signal the trend reversing down, targeting 20.95 and lower.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The stock market’s overnight decline induced a flight-to-safety that fulfilled the 137-22 target. The balance of the session dipped to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 136-29 close. Closing any lower after Thursday would signal momentum is reversing down. Closing above 137-22 would no longer qualify the recent rally as only a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Slightly lower lows probed under 102.00 but bounced to test the 102.90 bounce limit. Closing back under drop’s initial 102.50 target would confirm 101.00 remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report doesn’t seem to have been responsible for inhibiting Wednesday’s buyers from recovering already. Wednesday’s low was retested by a fresh low, but not aggressively. Back above 4.21 would still trigger a recovery underway.

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Posted in Daily Spot