Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Currencies were eerily calm Thursday amid the tragic geopolitical developments. None of Tuesday and Wednesday’s accomplishments were undone, but one more new high close might be difficult to extend.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s narrow ranging at Wednesday’s lows underscores the attraction to at least one more lower close. But not yet bouncing to correct the drop does make one more fresh low close vulnerable to being a last, or among the last before reversing up more substantially.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming early Thursday extended sharply on the news from Russia-Ukraine. Exceeding 1313.00 triggered an upleg to 1326.00 resistance. There is room for noise up to 1332.50, but otherwise another drop should begin relatively soon to produce the outstanding fresh low close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce on the day’s big news extended through 21.05 to 21.28. That had needed to hold as support to avoid extending down originally, so its resistance should hold to avoid a much bigger detour before producing the outstanding new low close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s Ascending Triangle broke higher pre-open to gap up Thursday, fulfilling its 137-28 objective. Perhaps the mid-morning news was responsible for extending the rally to test 138-00, whose recovery puts into play 138-28, with interim resistance at 138-10.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s Island Reversal pattern extended higher Wednesday night and pre-open Thursday, gapping up sharply again — as is the characteristic of the pattern’s impatient optimism. Just filling the gap back up to 102.90 made 104.05 the bounce’s likely target. A pullback from filling the gap was recovered, suggesting the bounce’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The opportunity to recover 4.12 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report was still being tested through Wednesday’s close (through its entire session, actually), leaving the pattern vulnerable if not likely to react down sharply to new lows. Unless recovered considerably into the weekend, a lower low is likely.

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