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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s surge tested and probed Friday’s high, which Monday’s reaction down left as likely. Now the question is whether one fresh high close will suffice. Closing back under 80.60 would signal the trend had reversed back down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s narrow ranging confirmed that Friday’s bounce had not reversed the trend back up, and that Friday’s low would be retested. Tuesday’s gap down extended to fresh lows, which also fulfilled the outstanding objective for a new low close. The trend would be reversed up by closing above 1.3525.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was retraced in reaction to Tuesday morning’s CPI, but that failed to hold its recovery above 1313.00, keeping alive the potential for resuming the decline next targeting 1284.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce held a test of 21.05 resistance to keep alive the 20.55 target in-play below.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday wasn’t likely to be a durable rejection of 138-28 being attacked Monday. Testing 138-00 and closing back above 138-10 keeps alive the 138-28 high’s retest, whose recovery would make the rally likelier to extend instead of forming a top.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s test of the Island Reversal’s likely target was probed overnight basis Aug, while Sep remained stuck to the outstanding gap that had been filled already. Tuesday afternoon was spent testing “lower prior highs” as support, but not yet signaling that momentum had reversed down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Tuesday further delayed forming a troughing pattern which is the next possible bottoming opportunity in this pattern

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