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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 23, 2014 - 2:56 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Wednesday doesn’t suggest the trend is yet ready to reverse down. But it also doesn’t form a solid base for extending the rally if attempted.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s drop wasn’t corrected Wednesday, nor did its trend continue, but the session was spent hovering at the lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t recover 1313.00. Testing of recent lows in the 1304.00 area didn’t extend down, but tested the area enough that its break shouldn’t be delayed much further. The delay in breaking lower otherwise keeps alive the vulnerability to breaking higher, despite the outstanding objective for fresh lows down to at least 1284.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
21.05 continued to resist any recovery attempt Wednesday, although the decline did not extend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s firming back to the 138-27 high must be rejected forcefully for the retest to remain vulnerable to launching a new downleg. The potential for a new downleg is already suspect, and closing above 138-28 would signal the uptrend extending.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs Wednesday extended the Island Reversal’s rally to test 103.35 basis Sep. Swing measurements from around the Island project there, and to 104.05 basis Aug (which no longer trades), suggesting that the target has been tested and retested. Resuming the decline Thursday should be obvious almost immediately if it the bounce isn’t going to extend substantially.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday before dipping under Tuesday’s low was the first sign of any strength during the recent slide. Regardless, Thursday’s EIA report certainly isn’t being met by strength, so a positive knee-jerk reaction would likely be retraced — perhaps its retracement would hold and recover, but that would have to be assessed in real-time.

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Posted in Daily Spot