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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 24, 2014 - 2:20 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Firming Thursday to fresh highs without any velocity is vulnerable to reversing down. It’s like waiting for another shoe to drop. And the longer that it doesn’t drop, the more vulnerable the pattern becomes to surging higher.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap up didn’t extend higher intraday and only ranged narrowly sideways, leaving no new pattern.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s retesting of 1304.00 had no bearish excuse to further delay its break and resuming the decline to 1284.50. It was attacked to within $3, by extending sharply lower Thursday after gapping down. Regardless of not yet having met 1284.50, Thursday’s fresh low close neutralizes the attraction below for at least one more fresh low close. Back above 1296.00 would suggest the objective was fulfilled.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s break lower extended down sharply through the 20.55 minimum target that was left outstanding by the interim bounce. Now it is essentially resistance, and its recovery would target a test of Wednesday’s 21.00 close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down is not the optimal way to end the recent rally that was recovered to touch its 138-27 prior high instead of its retest probing higher. So closing Thursday back under 137-28 down would still be vulnerable to being a false break that reverses back up to resume the rally.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The Island Reversal’s comparable target at 103.35 that held its test Wednesday was not improved Thursday. The attempt to reverse down immediately didn’t get far, but at least the level’s relevance is confirmed.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up ahead of the EIA report was rewarded by surging through the news to test the three-session old opening gap down to 3.85. The surge held up, so that pulbacks can still resume the rally if 3.80 were to hold as support.

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Posted in Daily Spot