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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Do you get my Email Alerts? You might not have noticed my pre-open blog post discussing Gold and the long bond’s price action (click here to read it). The sign-up can be found in the blog’s sidebar.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s fresh low underscored that Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” did not equate to a buy signal. But it did create a favorable environment for bottoming, as does avoiding a second lower close Wednesday. And Wednesday’s gap down testing fresh lows was recovered into positive territory, suggesting that a bottom is forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The opening rally extended to test 1311.00, maintaining the relevant portion of the recovery. Apart from the pre-open blog post discussion, closing above 1313.00 would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s plunge to 19.85 support did react up to recover 19.97 resistance, which can’t tolerate another dip in order to consider the decline as having ended.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pre-open probing of 139-06 Wednesday fulfilled the minimum objective of a topping pattern. Its reaction filled the gap back down to what was Tuesday’s resistance at 138-16, as I described in this pre-open blog post. Closing back under 138-08 would essentially begin launching a new downleg, confirmed under 137-25. Back above 138-25 first would target 139-25.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s fresh low suggests the decline will test 95.00 before bottoming, unless 97.85 were recovered without further delay through Thursday’s close.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s higher high up to 3.94 was a second consecutive confirming high above Tuesday’s breakout session. So long as 3.85 holds as support, a rally is underway targeting 4.28-4.34. Thursday’s EIA report must be negotiated first.

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