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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 6, 2015 - 2:48 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The reaction to Friday”s pre-open Employment report exploited Thursday”s failure to exceed the gap back to Tuesday”s close that it had filled intraday. Wednesday”s post-close dip under 1.1400 support had been probed down to 1.1395, but that became resistance during Friday”s reaction down that extended down sharply to 1.1315.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s choppy sideways ranging proved to be hesitation ahead of Friday”s Employment report, when the reaction plunged to eventually fulfill this leg”s 1231.80-1236.70 target. The target range was very influential once probed. The eventual 1185.00-1195.00 target remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1244.50-1246.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s reaction to the Employment report plunged to and through recent lows to test 16.55. The interim high was very distributive, all but requiring this leg to extend. That would be suspect if not already extending further down through Monday morning.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s 148-24/149-16 inside day proved to be only hesitation ahead of the Employment Situation report, which triggered a plunge to almost 147-00. An eventual third lower close had become required three weeks earlier, forecasting also that the interim rally to 158-28 resistance would fail. There is now no new requirement, unless Friday”s breakout were confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
With the rally being free to resume, Friday”s improvement above 51.50 resistance helps to confirm the recovery”s momentum remains intact. Not closing above Tuesday”s 52.85 close after filling its gap does make the pattern vulnerable to another downdraft. But any fresh highs Monday would be credible for resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing above 2.70 is the nearest buy signal to be considered, so long as Friday”s close had left Thursday”s range. But too much of the session was devoted to ranging narrowly at the lows, so an immediate recovery Monday wouldn”t be credible.

Posted in Daily Spot