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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 14, 2014 - 3:04 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s opening surge confirmed Wednesday’s failed surge did finish correcting the first upleg from Tuesday’s low by having closed at 1.3365. Thursday’s own failed surge needed to hold 1.3375 as support intraday and close above 1.3385 to confirm its selling had been absorbed. But the session closed back at 1.3365. That’s not bullish for a pattern that is otherwise ready to rally. Any probe above 1.3385 would have no excuse not to extend higher sharply, or else a new downleg could be underway shortly.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wide fluctuation persisted overnight  and continued after Thursday’s open, retesting 1310.00 support, surging to probe above 1321.00, and then reacting down to test 1313.00 support. Fresh highs intraday do buy a little more time to launch the rally’s next upleg, but it’s not indefinite.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing back above 19.97 Thursday was needed to confirm that Wednesday’s fresh lows had held 19.85 as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s auction was greeted from having retested the rally’s 139-25 target up to 140-00. A reaction down was recovered to again probe 140-00, but not to reject it. Fresh highs are likely so long as 139-25 holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still not extending higher aggressively overnight meant that Thursday was ever more likely to resume the decline, next targeting 95.00. Dropping ~$2 intraday to fresh lows did come within 30-cents of the target.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report greeted a freshly and heavily sold-off market that was testing its 3.85 support. The reaction triggered a substantial surge to probe above 3.91, which must maintain its recovery to signal momentum has reversed up.

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Posted in Daily Spot