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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s rejection of Friday’s recovery not only avoided triggering a buy signal, but it was also followed Tuesday by a break to fresh lows. Recent ranging that had bottoming elements may yet prove only temporarily detoured from extending higher. But its probe of fresh lows is not a buy signal.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday was eerily calm, still hovering optimistically just above 1296.00 while the Dollar and Silver probed fresh lows. Post-close action did pierce under 1296.00. Regardless, the pullback still targets at least a test of 1284.50, especially so long as 1304.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s 19.47 low wasn’t rejected Monday, so its retest was likely. It was retested Tuesday morning on the way to fresh lows. No immediate buy signal would be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to 140-16 was a sufficient interruption of Monday’s session-long drop for another drop to actually signal the trend reversing down, which closing under 140-00 would trigger. In fact, 140-16 did react down when tested. But fresh lows only touched 139-24 instead of breaking lower — which would still trigger a new downleg, but otherwise has potential for recovering to fill the gap back to Friday’s 141-01 close, if not also test 141-14 while still forming a top.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Initially bouncing Tuesday was reversed to fresh lows that fulfilled the decline’s 95.00 objective. Fresh lows attacked 94.25, so that a new bounce limit could be established at 95.50. Closing back above 96.00 would signal the trend reversing back up.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Apparently, Monday’s bounces had chipped away at 3.82 resistance because Tuesday’s gap up above it easily extended higher intraday until touching 3.91 resistance. Closing any higher would make the recent high’s retest likely above 4.00. Meanwhile, a pullback to 3.82 would be helpful.

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