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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 4, 2014 - 2:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s optimism had prevented forming my bottoming setup which required first probing under Tuesday’s low. Gapping up could have extended higher only temporarily, but it failed to close above 1.3145. Thursday’s resolution was substantial, reacting to the ECB rate cut by plummeting to 1.3020. And that was extended even lower intraday to test 1.2950. Closing back above 1.3020 would trigger only a corrective bounce targeting 1.3085.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further ahead of Thursday’s ECB news didn’t prevent intraday weakness back down to the decline’s original 1265.50 target. A fresh low at 1259.00 isn’t required before a bottom can finish forming, not unless Silver is extending down further Friday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of the ECB statement was reversed to finally retest Tuesday’s low, which Gold had done already before Wednesday’s open. Closing back above 19.30 would help to seal a bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s post-open recovery extended slightly higher overnight, and spiked up Thursday morning in reaction to the ECB rate cut. But the requirement to retest Wednesday’s 138-06 opening gap was fulfilled on the way down to 138-02. Closing under 138-06 keeps alive potential for the drop to extend, next targeting 137-12.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness retraced Wednesday’s recovery leg to test at least 94.30 as support (by 15 cents), reflecting enough pessimism to consider the pullback as constructive to the recovery. The attraction above at 96.40-96.80 can now help to launch another upleg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted by a bounce testing 3.87 resistance, and reacted down to 3.79. Closing back above 3.83 would signal the drop’s momentum had lost traction. But a close back above 3.87 to signal momentum reversing up would still need to recover 3.91 to confirm.

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Posted in Daily Spot