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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 11, 2015 - 2:57 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday”s “ineffectual pessimism” wasn”t rejected immediately Wednesday. That wasn”t required, but it would have been optimal to establishing a low had formed. The delay could be dismissed considering the Eurogroup meeting, so long as the retest of Tuesday”s low holds.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having formed a Descending Triangle off of Monday”s corrective bounce, Wednesday”s break to a fresh low now requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm the next downleg underway, ultimately targeting 1185.00-1195.00. Closing back above 1226.00 would start to signal Wednesday”s breakout is false.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s selling originates from a higher level that help to avoid fresh lows. That”s not necessarily bullish, and it does help to confirm that Monday”s bounce was only a temporary correction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another fresh break Tuesday was not confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Wednesday. In fact, a fresh low was reversed back up into positive territory. This sequence can repeat indefinitely, but tends to end with a steep rally — but beware of Thursday”s 30-year auction results.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Tuesday night”s dip continued the reaction to the last upleg having failed to hold 52.85 and 51.75. The 49.35 pullback limit was tested intraday down to 48.00 before bouncing back to 50.00. Closing back above 49.35 suggests the pullback has ended, and it was being overlapped through the afternoon.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s test of the 2.70 buy signal was still being overlapped at the close instead of breaking decisively. Wednesday”s gap up to test 2.85 suggests the break is valid. I”m giving the pattern a benefit of the doubt that Thursday”s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, at least to recover from an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

Posted in Daily Spot