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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s blip-down to 1.0915 had reacted up sharply intraday, but that didn’t prevent Thursday’s open from gapping down to fresh lows and attacking 1.0825, targeting 1.0750-1.0785.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Suspicion about Wednesday’s close above the 1070.00 buy signal proved out overnight by erasing the intraday gain and opening Thursday back at 1057.20-1061.50 support. This latest test inflected down instead of up, probing fresh lows under 1047.00. The next lower support is 1038.50-1041.00, but closing back above 1061.50 would launch a new rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce above 14.10 attacked 14.35, but that didn’t neutralize its requirement for a third lower close. Thursday’s gap down to retest 13.70 support provided the lower close, and filled the outstanding gap back to Tuesday’s close. But a close above 14.10 is needed to signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce extended higher overnight to fulfill the 155-29 corrective bounce target. It wasn’t retested intraday, which hovered, suggesting that 155-29 would be retested before a downleg would be credible.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s 34.50 low was attacked to within 10-15 cents Thursday, early enough that delaying its test suggests “ineffectual optimism.” Rather than to form a bottom from retesting the low, delaying its retest much longer could extend the downleg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The premature bounce to 1.85 resistance proved it was “ineffectual optimism” ahead of Thurdsay’s EIA report, which triggered a reversal down to test 1.77, still targeting 1.71 and possibly 1.67.