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Daily Spot… Bearish bond pattern breaks lower – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot… Bearish bond pattern breaks lower

By Rod David | April 9, 2015 - 2:53 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night”s slide into Thursday”s gap down tested uptrending support at 1.0750. It wasn”t acknowledged as price slid lower to 1.0650, fulfilling the minimum third lower close outstanding from the confirmed breakout coming out of March. Having refueled sellers with the high”s retest, extending lower to 1.0590 before bouncing would not be surprising.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended lower Wednesday night and Thursday morning, testing the original 1194.00 buy signal, which was still being tested through the afternoon. There is no bullish excuse for further delaying the rally”s resumption, which should be aggressive, and triggered as low as 1205.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s drop under the original 16.45-16.60 pullback limit wasn”t rejected immediately Thursday, and instead probed lower, potentially targeting 16.05.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Any rejection of Wednesday”s return to 164-30 resistance had to be done aggressively if it were to be credible. Thursday”s dip back to the 163-18 low — and then through it after a disappointing 30-year auction — did extend down at a steeper pace that easily qualifies the characterization. The bearish pattern remains on-track.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s drop may be likely to recover and resume the rally, but it was too sizable to try recovering too quickly. In fact, Wednesday night”s bounce to 51.90 fell back to 50.60, as did a slightly higher high to 52.05 intraday. It”s still premature to resume rallying, but a slightly lower low Friday morning could be compelling for long-entry before the weekend”s geopolitical risk premium is added.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, but it wasn”t necessarily weakness. In either case, the reaction did probe fresh lows, and close lower. There is no active signal.

Posted in Daily Spot