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Daily Spot… Carnage. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot… Carnage.

By Rod David | July 7, 2015 - 2:26 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the 1.1120 bounce limit after Monday”s bounce originated optimistically short of actually touching the prior Sunday”s low, lower lows Tuesday filled the month-old gap at 1.0930. The drop”s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1.1000 as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s plunge fulfilled the retest of 1158.50 down to 1146.80. Consolidating under 1158.50 qualified as a breakout. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm at least a third eventual lower close coming. Closing above 1163.00 would signal that a bottom is forming, if not already reversing up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking down more than $1 Tuesday to 14.62 doesn”t seem to qualify as “slow-playing” its decline. But this is the stage where a bottom can form by re-syncing with Gold. Avoiding a second consecutive lower confirming close Wednesday would be the first step.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The quality of last week”s bottom hasn”t improved simply because of the rally that it launched. Extending higher even during Monday night”s stock index rally suggests that more than a flight-to-safety is driving price higher. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday confirms Monday”s breakout and requires an eventual third higher close. That said, Tuesday”s price action formed a potential Island that would be triggered by gapping open Wednesday back under 151-28 and leaving the eventual recovery for another week.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down deeper through Tuesday morning tested relevant support at 50.40-50.55. The next relevant support had been 51.90-52.05, which a reaction up was overlapping. This should be the low of what is only a correction, so long as a bounce recovers 52.90-53.00. Otherwise, extending down would next target new lows at 48.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s break back to 2.77 extended lower overnight somewhat similarly to Friday”s temporary probe above 2.83. Fresh lows intraday under 2.69 were retraced enough that also recovering 2.77 Wednesday could form a durable bottom. There is otherwise no compelling pattern currently.

Posted in Daily Spot