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Daily Spot… Complacency into the weekend? – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot… Complacency into the weekend?

By Rod David | May 1, 2015 - 2:33 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Treating Wednesday”s surge above 1.1020 resistance as a breakout, made Thursday”s higher high its confirmation, which requires at least an eventual third higher close. Friday tried initially to extend higher, but mostly just ranged around Thursday”s highs. Extending the rally above 1270 would target 1.1400, so long as 1.1120 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1182.70 bounce limit Thursday kept alive the 1170.00-1174.00 target, which was attacked night, and probed intraday Friday down to 1168.50. Closing above 1182.70 would now signal momentum reversing up, but extending lower would target 1154.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday to 16.15 instead of recovering it kept alive the reversal”s momentum, but that wasn”t exploited as Thursday”s 15.80 low was only retraced by 61.8% — outperforming Gold. Back above 16.15 would target 16.50-16.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday broke lower to test 157-16. So, Wednesday and Thursday”s probes under 159-14/159-26 may be the first half of a four-day sequence of two consecutive unconfirmed breakouts. That would make the pattern”s fourth day on Monday unlikely to confirm, either by not probing lower or by recovering from a probe lower. Actually confirming Friday”s breakout on Monday would target 156-08, and then potentially 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having confirmed Wednesday”s breakout above 57.70 with a second consecutive higher close above the 59.31 target on Thursday, Friday was free to dip. Holding 58.65 support keeps alive this leg”s upward momentum, next targeting 61.75 and 62.45. Often, at least firming on Friday is likely as a hedge against a weekend geopolitical surprise, but complacency seems more influential.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s surge was extended Friday and touched the 2.80 target. Now pullbacks should hold 2.71 to maintain the rally”s momentum, next targeting 3.06.

Posted in Daily Spot