Daily Spot… Crude holds up, bonds push back.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s bounce that attacked 1.0855 still had room to test 1.0900 just as a correction. Thursday took advantage of that room, now presumably ending its correction before resuming the decline to its 1.0700 target.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning”s dip wasn”t recovered entirely, so Wednesday”s breakout close wasn”t confirmed. That”s not bearish, but this early stage of the rally won”t tolerate much further delay in resuming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the prior week”s gap Wednesday without closing above it had left the pattern vulnerable to a reaction down, which it did since Thursday”s open didn”t immediately extend higher. Another lower close would undermine the last pullback”s recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s probe above 164-30/165-08 was tested as support Thursday, and then probed down to 164-16. Closing under 164-30/165-08 would start to signal the probe above prior highs was forming a Double Top likely to resolve down well under its interim low.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s narrow ranging around 48.75 was still being tested at the close, not high enough to confirm Wednesday”s breakout. Probing lower in reaction the Iran deal was recovered back above 49.25, suggesting the breakout would be extended. But the recovery attempt won”t tolerate much more delay in resuming.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, since Wednesday was a new low close. But as I described during Wednesday”s post-market Wrap, the new low close wasn”t necessarily a position of weakness, since it fulfilled the delayed requirement of a recent breakout. That did allow a favorable reaction to EIA Thursday morning, surging back above prior lows to 2.72, leaving no unfinished business below.