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Daily Spot — Crude Oil, extending its target, bonds about to face facts. – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot — Crude Oil, extending its target, bonds about to face facts.

By Rod David | April 7, 2015 - 2:11 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Backing off to attack 1.0900 late Monday was too late to maintain the bearish scenario. It would still require Tuesday”s close to be under 1.0855. Tuesday”s open gapped down to test it, and just still overlapping it at the close would reinstate the bearish scenario — so long as 1.0900 were not recovered again.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1213.00 and 1208.50 pullback limits were both tested Tuesday. Closing underboth on the same day would have been bearish, but not already closing back above both now requires closing above 1218.00 to signal that momentum is reversing back up.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Room for a pullback down to 16.80-16.90 was probed fully overnight, and held intraday Tuesday. Closing back above 17.05 would signal the rally had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging Tuesday avoided resuming the rally, which is in-line with the bigger distributive pattern, as an accumulative pattern would not remain under pressure within two days of a new high. But the pattern”s timing should now recognize the lack of recovery and extend down more aggressively.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s post-open surge probed above prior highs to attack 53.85. Holding 52.50 as support would be optimal for maintaining potential to 56.00.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Monday night back to Thursday”s close didn”t qualify as filling its gap. Dipping back down before Tuesday”s open helped to restrain the optimism so that sellers could be marginalized. Actually filling the gap intraday without yet reversing down makes any fresh high Wednesday likely to extend higher intraday — and potentially to greet Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength.

Posted in Daily Spot