Daily Spot: Currencies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Extended higher Monday to close above 80.90. It wasn’t that impressive because 80.90 was probed early in the day, and its resistance already chipped away on Friday. Buyers still get a benefit of the doubt for resuming rally, which would have great consequences. But confirmation above 81.10 would help, without delay.

Gold Feb (GCG) Sunday night’s gap up to probe 1381.00 was maintained through the close. Fresh recovery highs were probed intraday, and 1379.00 held a test as support. The afternoon’s recovery already expended what would have been pent-up buying pressure. Extending the recovery and fulfilling the 1381.00 buy signal depends upon extending higher Tuesday without delay.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Having extended sharply higher Friday, the recovery attempt needed only to avoid resuming the decline. Fresh recovery highs Monday were retraced back down to Friday’s open. The pullback can also test Thursday’s close in the 119’18 area without sellers gaining traction.

Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Not much to comment on until the 91/10 gap open is filled. Or, not until a break lower. But there have been so many opportunities to break lower not exploited, meaning many decisions not to break lower.

Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Friday’s narrow recovery back above 4.06 follow-through Sunday night and Monday to further confirm last week’s drop was only a product of the prior week’s Head & Shoulders pattern. Testing 4.21 intraday required a close above, which 4.24 fulfilled. The recovery’s character should be steep and substantial if valid – 2-3 consecutive sessions of surging.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).