Daily Spot: Currencies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Making a bigger bottom? Friday’s completion of a two-day bottom signal was tested by Monday’s gap down that probed slightly lower lows intraday.
But Thursday’s low close held as support through the close, suggesting Monday’s price action was “ineffectual pessimism.” And the gap back up to Friday’s 78.28 close (circled green) remains open and unfinished business.
Bottoming remains intact so long as 77.70-77.72 holds as support.
Gold Feb (GCH) Not all pauses refresh. Monday’s inside day was a stark contrast to Friday’s wild swing. And it was biased up, recovering from a gap down to fill the open’s gap. Closing under 1324.00-1326.50 would signal a new downleg underway, targeting 1265.00. Otherwise, more consolidation is likely.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Chipping away at support. Friday’s close at 121’14 resolved the same as prior probes above 121’14, by gapping down under 120’14. An intraday test of 120’14 held as support, which could be bearish. Closing under it would have been likelier to gap up, so closing under Monday’s 120’09 low would suggest sellers were gaining traction.
Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Better than advertised. Despite falling back down to 88.45 into Monday’s open, the 90.75 overnight high required a retest. It was retested up to 92.84. That filled the gap back to the two-week old sell signal.Closing under 91.45 and 91.30 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 89.50. Closing above 92.60 would likelier extend higher.
Natural Gas Feb (NGG) Resisting a bounce. Gap up tested 4.33 resistance, which wasn’t going to recover prior to a bigger dip testing 4.13. In fact, the open’s strength was reversed into negative territory at Friday’s 4.28 low. The open’s gap up could have helped to attract price higher the next day, but the pent-up buying pressure was already released by a surge into the close. A close above 4.55 would still be credible for gaining traction. Otherwise, next target below is 4.13.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).