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Daily Spot: Currencies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Currencies

By Rod David | February 7, 2011 - 7:56 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One day to lift-off, or else. Monday’s price action ranged flat to lower. The pattern wasn’t required to extend higher, but it would have been helpful after having probed prior highs intraday. The probe wasn’t necessarily rejected, so so too much energy wasn’t left on the table. The rally could extend higher by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning.

Euro Dollar Mar (ECH) Chipping away at support. Two sell signals had triggered in the week prior to last week’s high. Both were broken Friday. Monday’s lower low was recovered enough to end the day testing prior lower as resistance. An obvious downleg should be underway by the following close to avoid one more attack on last week’s highs.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Once more for the gipper. Sideways ranging held just above the 1342.50-1345.00 pullback limit. Its break would signal the next downleg underway. Delaying its break suggests another attack on 1361.00 first.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) One small bounce for the effort. The overnight touch of 117’16 was retested down to 117’13 where RSIs diverged positively. Its reaction recovered the 117’27 interim high, and closed above the drop’s original 118’00 target. Sellers lost a lot of momentum, for a corrective bounce targeting at least 119’04 – and probably only for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Once it gets started, there’s no stopping it. Monday extended back down to the original 87.70 buy signal from Friday Jan 28. So long as 89.50 is not recovered, the trend remains down and next targeting 84.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) One target met creates another. The long-awaited 4.13 target was tested aggressively by Monday’s gap down that extended down sharply intraday. No surprise on direction, nor on objective, just a little surprising on the aggressiveness. Quite a bit to be absorbed so quickly, room to extend down to 4.06-4.07 for comparisons that can indicate whether a durable low is in.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot