Daily Spot: Currencies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Oops, too much. Monday’s gap down could have ended the pullback at 76.80. Extending down to 76.60 touched the prior downleg’s “pivotal low,” the low prior to the 76.46 actual low. That all but ensures eventually testing the 76.46 actual low. Immediately recovering to close back above 77.05 would suggest otherwise.

Gold Apr (GCJ) A brief window opens for new highs. Overnight strength filled the gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1432.00 close. And the reaction down held up above 1424.00 so that buyers wouldn’t lose traction. The session formed a Symmetrical Triangle. New highs targeting 1450.00 are likely so long as immediate weakness doesn’t close under  131416.00. Closing under 131412.00 would signal a Double Top had formed and a new downleg was underway.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Breakout confirmed, a little. A second consecutive close above 119’26 has confirmed Friday’s breakout. Not yet closing above Friday’s 120’29 high is a concern, but it can be mitigated by rallying further without delay. Regardless, 122’00 is in-play so long as 119’26 holds as support.

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Waiting for the other shoe. Closing Monday above 101.00 avoided triggering a steeper and deeper downleg. Closing under 99.00 would put it into play. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 104.50 before expecting a retest of the high up to 107.25 or even to 111.45.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Tease. Monday’s gap open above 4.02 was hopeful for proving last week’s testing of 3.93 was accumulative. The afternoon’s slide back toward Friday’s close deflated the balloon with sellers gaining traction. But a close above 4.03 is still needed to trigger a rally underway.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).