Daily Spot: Currencies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) New lows fulfilled unfinished business. Monday’s fresh low fulfilled the minimum objective of Thursday confirmed breakout. The open’s gap down was retraced to fill the gap from Friday’s close up to 76.00. Recovering it would trigger a bounce targeting 76.75, whose recovery would signal a new rally leg underway. Otherwise, the next lower target is 75.00.
Gold Apr (GCJ) Closing under the opens gap up isn’t strength. Sunday night’s rally exploited Friday’s close still having been the process of testing 1416.00 support. The open’s test of 1435.00 held a retest that pushed back down to session lows into the close. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, like Friday. Like Monday, extending higher would require gapping up, probably above 1440.00. Closing under 1424.00 would signal the recovery attempt had ended.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Prior target still resisting. Monday’s small gap down soon extended to within 1 tick of Friday’s low. The retest of last week’s “lower prior highs” as support held, and the close recovered 121’08. Recovering 122’00 on a closing basis would still signal the 122’00 target is in-play. No further dipping to 121’08 should be needed first, unless sellers are gaining traction.
Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Baby steps to the target. Sunday night’s rally attacked Thursday nights high almost to within $1 of the corrective bounce’s 104.50 target. A pullback into Monday’s close didn’t gain traction. The bounce target remains in-play so long as 101.50 holds as support.
Natural Gas May (NGK) At least it’s predictable. Monday mimicked Friday’s choppy, range-bound session. An intraday probe of fresh highs above 4.30 was retraced to end back under the rally’s initial 4.25 target. Two days without extending higher probably require a pullback to refuel buyers. Back under 4.20 would target 4.09-4.13, to launch the next rally leg targeting 4.35-4.40, and potentially 4.55.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).