Daily Spot: Currencies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) A well-deserved rest. Monday’s flat-to-higher ranging was natural following Friday’s volatile swing. A better bottom would have been signaled by probing Friday’s low before bouncing. Already firming – and only firming – suggests a more ranging is likely Tuesday.
Gold Jun (GCM) Try, try again. Get shut-down again. Monday’s gap up to 1439.00 resistance was retraced back down to the 1430.00 area. Buyers gained no traction, so extending higher would require gapping up Tuesday above 1439.00, which would target 1455.00. Any weaker opening strength – or simply opening weak – would likely resolve lower. Closing under 1424.00 would signal a new downleg underway.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Too much, too soon. The expected backing-and-filling was done Sunday night down to 120’00. A pullback during regular trading hours might have been more productive, since Monday’s intraday extension of Friday’s slow and steady recovery up to 120’27 was retraced entirely at the close. Not even 120’16 was recovered. Potential for resuming the recovery remains alive so long as pullbacks hold any test of 120’07 as support.
Crude Oil May (CLK) The rally’s end? Sunday night’s action easily fulfilled the 108.25-108.50 target area. Its retest formed a Double Top following a pullback whose interim low was probed into Monday’s open down to 107.58. An intraday test of the target area remained likely – it was attacked up to 108.60, retracing more than 61.8% of the overnight Double Top, which also makes higher highs likely. Temporary higher highs, as the target has been met.
Natural Gas May (NGK) The door opens to another rally attempt. Monday’s action mimicked Friday by repeating its intraday weakness that probed under 4.25, and also its recovery back above 4.35. However, the close above 4.35 was not repeated. That’s irrelevant since sellers didn’t gain any traction. But a valid recovery leg should become obvious by Tuesday’s close or Wednesday’s open to gain ground before Thursday’s EIA report.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).