Daily Spot: Currencies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Bottoming can now begin. Or, not. Monday’s fresh low extended down to mimic Friday’s action. RSIs diverged positively, so a low may be forming, but there is no active signal. The trend otherwise remains down so long as bounces hold 75.50 as resistance.
Gold Jun (GCM) Tired, but not yet toppling. If Monday’s gap down didn’t prove that Friday’s session didn’t gain traction, then Monday afternoon’s lower lows did. The 1461.90 low probed Thursday’s “lower prior highs” as support, but a little too late for it to produce a bounce. Nevertheless, the session did close while retesting its opening gap down, after spending the entire session in negative territory. This “ineffectual pessimism” keeps the door open to one more intraday high attacking 1480.00. Closing under 1463.50 would target 1447.00-1449.00.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Optimism doesn’t form a bottom. Gapping down Monday helped to confirm that Friday’s session-long bounce gained no traction. But the morning’s lower low stopped short of probing Friday’s low before recovering to probe Friday’s highs. This is still too optimistic for a confirmed downleg that has yet to meet its 117.00 target. Any bounce is still likely to fail.
Crude Oil May (CLK) Can’t the Colonel afford his own subscription? Apparently someone informed Kadaffy that Crude Oil’s target was 113.00, and that it had been met. His leverage on the west had peaked, so he began a cease-fire negotiation. Crude fell to 109.38. That’s a fast retracement for a newly-met target. Obviously, the level is valid resistance, but the downleg probably isn’t. Not, yet. I’ll gauge another bounce for its potential to launch a more durable drop. A close back under 108.25-108.50 may not extend down, but it would confirm the top is in.
Natural Gas May (NGK) Zigging, not zagging, and not bottoming. Despite being likely to mimic Friday’s drop, Monday’s session bounced. Thursday’s intraday spike down (in reaction to EIA) was fully retraced back to its origin, which is also natural resistance. This only prolongs the downleg by helping to refuel sellers. The next lower target at 3.97 remains outstanding.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).