Daily Spot: Currencies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Literally capping off a quick run. Despite gapping down, the rally resumed Monday morning and fulfilled the next higher target by filling the gap up to 75.36. Then the new trend high was rejected to close negative. This forms a “Pivot Reversal” which signals at least a retracement underway, presumably targeting 73.80.

Gold Jun (GCM) Premature optimism prevents big optimism. Monday’s open gapped up and extended higher intraday. But it didn’t gap up above 1518.00, so it didn’t extend higher to 1557.00-1560.00 – only to 1514.00. This setup remains valid if triggered. But now almost any close under 1505.00 would target a retest of 1474.00, where a more durable bottom could still form.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Scared to rock the boat. While 124’00 had served as the two prior sessions’ mid-point, it was Monday’s support. A small gap down there was quickly recovered back up to 124’18, where the balance of the session ranged very narrowly. Not yet having refueled buyers with a bigger dip, a quick test of 125’06 would be likely to reverse down sharply. An interim dip has potential down to 123’02.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Refueling bounce underway. Monday’s gap up back above prior lows was consolidated through mid-morning before firming further. Eventually, a probe above Friday’s intraday high came within a dime of the 103.50 corrective bounce target. There remains potential up to 104.50 and 105.75 before another downleg were to begin.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Simply curious. Still monitoring for a long-entry setup. Meanwhile, Monday’s session dipped to fresh lows.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).