Daily Spot: Currencies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another pause. Although Mondays tend to mimic Friday’s action, the Dollar’s fresh high printed only overnight. The balance of the session trended down gently without sellers gaining traction.

Gold Jun (GCM) Finally, a rest. The trendless day anticipated Friday did form Monday. Actually, Friday was also trendless, but still choppy within Thursday’s wide range. Monday’s action wasn’t even choppy. Trending is free to resume, or to be attempted. Even the most bullish scenario could probe fresh lows intraday.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Not backing off. Gaining a half-point after Monday’s firm open wasn’t enough to retest Friday’s 125’04 high. But intraday highs did stop pessimistically short of touching Friday’s high. And Monday’s close was above prior high closes. Tuesday’s pattern should top and reverse down if the market intends to top and reverse down soon.

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Sneaking over the edge. Weakness didn’t extend down, but it didn’t recover. The decline is free to resume at any time. Any probe of prior lows is likely to be done by a new downleg, and not as part of a bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) A benefit of the doubt, while it lasts. Friday’s recovery attempt extended higher into Monday’s open, recovering 4.30. This puts into play a test of 4.50 if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday. If not confirmed, then a fresh low under 4.15 is likely, and its recovery to close back above prior lows would form a much more durable bottom.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).