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Daily Spot: Energies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Energies

By Rod David | December 16, 2010 - 2:37 am

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jan (CLF) Wednesday’s opening gap down quickly bottomed at prior lows and rallied back to prior highs, maintaining potential – if not the likelihood – for filling the gap back to last Monday’s 90.65 open before a more durable sell-off can be attempted.

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Natural Gas Jan (NGF) Rather than recover 4.31-4.35, Tuesday’s decline extended. Stretching the rubber band more tightly does buy some time for a recovery attempt, especially since the morning’s low held an afternoon retest. Gapping or surging back above the 4.28 intraday high would help to seal a bottom. EIA news at 10:30 Thursday is a potential catalyst.

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Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Tuesday’s 79.85 high was recovered quickly Wednesday to signal momentum reversing up. Last week’s Head & Shoulders pattern was probed by 61.8% up to 80.60. Recovering 80.70 would next target 80.90, whose recovery would signal a durable rally leg underway.

Gold Feb (GCG) Tuesday’s recovery back to the open’s gap up, and back to 1407.00, was rejected by Wednesday’s open gapping down under Tuesday’s lows. The test of 1385.00 support should fill the gap back to 1381.00 to launch another test of 1398.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Tuesday’s drop extended lower Wednesday, testing the 119’00 area. Probes under 119’08-119’20 must recover quickly to avoid gaining traction that extends the decline. And extending the decline at this stage of the pattern would be very bearish.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).

Posted in Daily Spot