Daily Spot: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Crude Oil Feb (CLG) Refueling sellers with a bounce. Fresh lows at 88.10 overnight and into Wednesday morning were accompanied by improving RSIs. Sellers had already lost traction at Tuesday’s close. The setup’s 91.00 target was attacked within 53 cents at the afternoon’s high. Potential to 91.70 so long as pullbacks hold 90.00.
Natural Gas Feb (NGG) They earned the day off. Tested its 4.50 pullback limit, but has yet to recover. The delay suggests the gap back to Friday’s 4.40 gap will be filled, too. Initial weakness before Thursday’s EIA report would make a recovery likely. Regardless, Thursday should close strong and extend to new highs above 4.70 by Friday morning to avoid a deeper corrective dip.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Year-end detour seems over. Tuesday’s afternoon-long “ineffectual pessimism” hovering just under 79.85 was punished immediately by Wednesday’s gap up and extension to 80.63. Potential for some backing-and-filling to test 80.03 as support, but close above 80.83 would signal the rally is already extending.
Gold Feb (GCG) They can always go lower, but not forever. Failing to reject Tuesday’s test of 1378.00 support meant sellers maintained their traction.Wednesday’s extension down to 1364.00 reacted back up to 1380.00. But 1378.00 still held its test as resistance, so sellers still were not robbed of their traction. This all but requires an eventual probe under 1364.00, whether temporarily or as a new downleg targeting a probe under 1320.00. Meanwhile, with sellers having entrenched their trend, there is potential for a corrective bounce to refuel them targeting 1390.00 or 1403.00.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Time’s up. Price’s down. Tuesday’s continued pessimism at not filling the gap back to Friday’s 122’03 close required a recovery to appear immediately, if at all. The morning’s test of 1210’14 support was one test too many, and its break to 119’08 stopped optimistically short of touching last week’s 119’06 low. Only an unlikely recovery back above 120’14 can prevent this leg from extending down to 118’00.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Softs (Fri, coming).