Daily Spot: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Sellers absorbed, another rally leg ready. Tuesday’s close under the morning’s lows was potentially bearish. The setup would have been outright bearish had the interim bounce probed above prior highs, and not just into positive territory.
Wednesday’s lower lows tested 90.75 and touched 90.15, whose breaks would have signaled and confirmed a downleg underway targeting 84.00. But both levels held their test. Its reaction almost closed back above 91.35 whose recovery would put into play a fresh high of at least 93.00.
Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Good news would be bad news. I’m still no fan of the upside prospects without first testing 4.13 below, or recovering 4.55. The past several bounces and gaps up to 4.32 resistance have been easily dismissed for being excessive optimism, and each has been appropriately retraced.
Yet they keep coming. Once again testing 4.32 Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report – optimistic, but not excessive, suggests a test of 4.55 is coming. Its recovery is needed to turn bullish, but a test of 4.55 seems likely. And a test of 4.55 would be vulnerable to launching a new downleg targeting 4.13.
Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) When is a break not a break? Tuesday’s break to new lows lacked sponsorship, making it unlikely to confirm Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday did not close lower. As important then is that no strong bounce expended too much buying pressure before it could become pent-up overnight. A valid recovery should be very aggressive – not rallying aggressively would be likely to fail.
Gold Apr (GCJ) Sideways ranging until a bigger bounce begins. Returning so often to test the 1342.50-1345.00 bounce limit suggests its resistance has been chipped away. That is potentially bullish, waiting to be unleashed by probing higher. Then 1342.50-1345.00 can serve as support to launch a corrective bounce targeting 1361.50 and 1376.00. Meanwhile, any dip is likely to recover. I am not looking for a sell signal until there is a close under 1322.00.
30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Grudgingly dropping to another fresh low . The drop from 121’14 still behaves as if it intends to break the months-long range and test 118.00. Wednesday’s gap up was rejected to close back under Tuesday’s 119’17 low. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces no hold any test of 120’02 as resistance.
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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).