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Daily Spot: Energies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Energies

By Rod David | February 9, 2011 - 5:56 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Top-heavy at a low. Tuesday’s gap down reacted up into the prior session’s range. Then its gap was retested. Wednesday reacted back up into the same prior session’s range. That could have been the basis for a bigger bounce. Instead, Wednesday closed by dipping back into Tuesday’s opening gap. Buyers aren’t gaining traction, and any lower low under 86.35 would be credible for resuming the drop next targeting 84.00.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Buyers nowhere to be found. Wednesday’s new low fulfills the minimum requirement of Monday’s breakout and Tuesday’s confirmation. But it was not very much in the spirit of the requirement, being only a slightly lower low, and it certainly wasn’t recovered. I might consider a long-entry parameter if another new low Thursday were recovered sufficiently.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not exactly a fast start. The inverted Head & Shoulders pattern has yet to trigger above 78.25-78.33. Wednesday’s close also failed to recover 77.85. Its quick recovery Thursday, and a quick extension above the pattern’s trigger, would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Failing to fulfill these bullish parameters would be bearish.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Not every day can surge. Tuesday’s rally has yet to extend. Wednesday’s dip to 1358.30 recovered 1361.50 through the close, maintaining the potential for reaching 1376.00. But the rally must resume quickly to avoid sellers gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Suspicious timing. Lower lows overnight tested 116’26, but recovered to close back above 118’00. This action seems once again to have robbed sellers of their traction, while signaling a corrective bounce – perhaps targeting more than 119’04 to compensate for the detour. But I’ll withhold that judgement until after Thursday’s 1:00pm ET 30-year auction, in case Wednesday’s recovery was simply last-minute ill-fated optimism.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

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