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Daily Spot: Energies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Energies

By Rod David | February 16, 2011 - 7:43 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Now, where did I place my rose-colored glasses? As warned, reaching the 84.00 target would find a mood shift from all that has been going right, to all that could go wrong. They’re still protesting in Cairo, their death toll rises, and an Iranian warship is steaming toward Syria.

Tuesday’s 83.85 low was followed the next day by a 85.95 high. There is potential to probe one more lower low intraday. Closing above 85.50 would rob sellers of any remaining traction, and a close above 86.50 would signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) By default. Wednesday’s gap down didn’t extend lower, which continues to reflect a vulnerability to rallying – if only for a corrective rally targeting 4.13.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) One more for the dipper. Wednesday’s initial surge quickly peaked since Tuesday’s shallow dip already had expended too much optimism. The lower low at 78.30 held, but did not recover 78.65 which would signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Apr (GCJ) A day late, six dollars short. Tuesday’s gap up to the 1376.00 target never extended higher intraday. Wednesday’s noon hour probe of higher highs up to 1382.70 was too late to gain traction, and the close fell back under 1376.00. A dip under 1370.00 prior highs should bounce to retest Tuesday’s 1375.50 open, but a close under 1370.00 could still seal a top.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) One way, or another. The corrective bounce has ended. Its 119’16 bounce target was met Wednesday, despite the open’s shallower surge reversing down into negative territory first. The subsequent recovery to 119’20 was also reversed back into negative territory, ending flat on the day. Thursday’s econ calendar is quite busy. Extending any higher would be more than a corrective bounce.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

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