Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Missed it by that much. The rally came back with renewed vigor Wednesday after having held its pullback limit Tuesday. The intraday 100.00 peak missed my 100.50 target, but that just makes a higher target likely. The first close above 100.50 will define that level.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Building a floor of trapped shorts. Wednesday’s retest of the week’s prior lows was recovered back into positive territory. Its peak stopped pessimistically short of fully filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 3.97 open. Any close above it would trigger a corrective rally targeting at least 4.13.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Not even a safe haven? Perhaps now the only way to avoid retesting recent lows is to spike or gap up Thursday to reject Wednesday’s drop. Monday’s overnight highs will need to be retested eventually. But Wednesday’s drop confirms the inverted Head & Shoulders driving February’s bounce was already retraced past its tipping point.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Inch by inch. A retest of Tuesday’s 1410.00 highs was needed, which Wednesday’s session fulfilled. There is potential for noise to range up to 1426.00, so long as the lower-end holds 1305.50. Regardless, a close under 1398.00 would be the earliest signal that momentum is reversing down.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Target in sight. A failed test of 121’14 had triggered the downleg that eventually fulfilled the 117’16-118’00 target. It was retraced completely on Wednesday. The reaction down from there doesn’t change the 122’04 objective, which should still be tested regardless of the ultimate resolution.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).