Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) Breakout, sort of. The ongoing consolidation ended with Wednesday’s rally. The expected upleg is underway, but it is probably a final upleg since the consolidation was too shallow to refuel buyers. And Wednesday’s intraday rally expended a lot of energy without recovering above last week’s highs.

Natural Gas Apr (NGJ) Heartbreaker. Wednesday’s close under 3.88 stops the watch for a rally to begin. Its recovery on a closing basis would prevent a new downleg from beginning. But a close above 3.98 is still needed to resume the rally effort. EIA reports on Thursday.

Dollar Basket Mar (DXH) Try, try again. Tuesday did not confirm Monday’s breakout close under prior lows. That did not prevent Wednesday from trending down to a new breakout close. But it does make Thursday unlikely to confirm, as well. None of which is a buy signal, but it would make fresh lows easier to recover,

Gold Apr (GCJ) Room to dip. Tuesday’s breakout was confirmed by a higher close Wednesday. The higher close also held a test of 1435.00 resistance, making a pullback likely down to  1424.00 that refuels buyers for at least one more higher high.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Can’t yet count out a rally. Wednesday’s retest of the rally’s 120’17 target was rejected to close under 119’26. Buyers have lost traction. But I can’t yet discount filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close and probing fresh highs.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).