Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Apr (CLJ) A dubious confirmation of a sell signal. Wednesday was the second consecutive close under the 99.00 sell signal. But it was only moderately lower, and well above Tuesday’s lows. As I noted during the Market Tours, that is hardly optimal. I would be suspicious of any delay in extending down forcefully. And I wouldn’t want to be short above 100.00 waiting for a close back under 99.00, exposed to a detour up to 104.25 or new highs.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Still teasing the buy signal. Spending Wednesday fluctuating around the 4.02 buy signal is at least not equivalent to rejecting it. Perhaps Thursday’s EIA report can sort things out.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) More ill-timed optimism. More adversity brought another rally effort, once again probing 77.05 and once again failing to close above it. Unfinished business below at new lows should still be tested. The delay may even add to the downside.

Gold Apr (GCJ) Ineffectual optimism. 1406.00 resistance held its test intraday Wednesday, and 1399.00 held through the close, all to maintain the decline’s momentum. Worse, the session formed “ineffectual optimism” by gapping up, probing prior highs and ranging exclusively in positive territory without closing above the morning’s highs. This setup normally resolves down immediately, even if only temporarily.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) If not for a flight-to-safety... Tuesday’s test of the 122’00 target never fully corrected before overnight events renewed interest to rally sharply Wednesday. So long as 121’08 holds as support, the next higher target at 125’00 is in-play.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).