Daily Spot: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Running out of steam at a big target. Wednesday didn’t back off from having met the 105.75 bounce target Tuesday. But price only firmed temporarily, and failed to close higher. A second consecutive higher close above 105.75 Thursday would have confirmed the 113.00 target is in-play. Meanwhile, the pattern is vulnerable to becoming toppy, if not to reversing down sharply under 105.25 and 104.50.
Natural Gas May (NGK) Rallying into resistance. Tuesday afternoon’s resumption of the rally didn’t skip a beat Wednesday by gapping up and extending higher intraday. The 4.40 target was easily exceeded, putting into play 4.55, so long as 4.35 holds as support. A downleg requires closing under 4.25. EIA report on Thursday morning.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Stop and start rally. But for the gap back to Tuesday’s close, gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s highs left no unfinished business below. Although not retraced intraday, the open’s gap didn’t extend higher. Unless the gap were filled Thursday before extending higher, a corrective bounce is underway. Perhaps the Euro’s reaction to Portugal’s vote against austerity measures will spur things along.
Gold Apr (GCJ) Cruising higher… on fumes. The 1437.00-1438.00 target was met Wednesday morning. The balance of the session ranged narrowly around it, while also touching March 2’s “pivotal high” (the high prior to March 7’s 1445.70 actual high). Just touching the pivotal high all but assures also touching the actual high. Touching the actual high without first correcting down to 1432.00-1433.00 would make the actual high’s test likely to reverse down sharply.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Day late, dollar short. The consequence of delaying 122’00‘s recovery became obvious when Wednesday’s gap up to it was retraced entirely and back into negative territory. Closing just above 122’00 would now be less credible for resuming the rally targeting 125’00. An interim dip to 120’17 is likelier.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).