Daily Spot: Energies
A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]
Gold Jun (GCM) Wild ranging deserves a narrow day. Wednesday’s wild session closed while testing 1426.00 resistance. Recovering it would have extended the bounce to 1439.00, and potentially to new highs above 1450.00. Now noise has room to fluctuate down to 1416.50, whose break would signal that last week’s drop was extending down, next targeting 1398.00.
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Scary dip still contained within the range. Wednesday’s open quickly attacked the week’s two ~76.70 highs. A sudden, steep and substantial drop probed Monday’s 76.29 low, and ended the session trying to recover Monday’s 76.35 close. Immediately recovering Thursday above Tuesday’s 76.50 close would signal the rogue drop had been absorbed, and that momentum was reversing up, likely to end Thursday closer to 77.00. Otherwise, delaying the recovery any further could essentially derail it altogether.
30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Little time left to greet Friday from strength. Tuesday’s fresh low did not extend down on Wednesday, and the 119’28 sell signal did not trigger. But that doesn’t mean buyers gained traction. In fact, session highs held tests of 120’07, which became resistance after breaking its support during last week’s decline. Back above 120’16-120’25 would signal a recovery attempt underway targeting 122’00. Not recovering on Thursday would prevent greeting Friday’s Employment report from safer ground, essentially signaling a downleg underway targeting 117’00.
Crude Oil May (CLK) Slow-playing the recovery could kill it. Last week’s multi-session consolidation around the rally’s 105.50 target eventually needed a dip to stretch the rubber band. That dip came Monday, and mostly contained Tuesday’s price action. It contained Wednesday’s price action, too. The stretched rubber band isn’t so stretched anymore. A fresh high above 105.45 would target a retest of prior highs up to 108.25, but not necessarily a new rally leg.
Natural Gas May (NGK) One dip away from a bottom. Or a break. Wednesday firmed after two consecutive session had dropped 14-15 cents each from intraday highs. Still monitoring for another accumulation pattern to form for a new rally leg to begin, like closing above 4.45 or holding a retest of 4.25 support.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…
Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).