Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil May (CLK) Recovery attempt must begin immediately, or not at all. The drop from 113.00 had extended so quickly through Tuesday that a lower low would likely be a buy. Lower lows down to 105.37 did print overnight, recovering sharply into the open. Overnight lows were retested intraday down to 105.31. There’s no bullish reason to delay the recovery attempt, no matter its likely bearish resolution, unless the bigger downleg has already begun.

Natural Gas May (NGK) Sitting this one out. Still no compelling price action with unfinished business only slightly lower.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another door open’s to buyers. An attack on fresh lows was recovered to probe Monday and Tuesday’s highs, closing above Tuesday’s low. This is a bottoming setup, and a close above 75.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Jun (GCM) A rock stuck between two hard places. 1463.50 held as resistance to avoid triggering fresh highs up to 1480.00. Then 1455.00 held as support to avoid lower lows testing 1447.00 – any lower there would trigger a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) About that last dip… Despite gapping down Wednesday under 119’04 to reject Tuesday’s test of 119’18, Tuesday’s highs were recovered. The afternoon’s action was distributive, but wasn’t triggered. Immediate weakness at Thursday’s open would be credible for extending down sharply intraday and resuming the drop to 117’00. Triggering immediate strength first, instead, would also be credible, targeting 120’25.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).