Daily Spot: Energies

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jun (CLM) Stopping just short of being a really big short. Tuesday’s sell signal was confirmed by a second consecutive close under 111.65. The drop extended down to test 108.85-109.15, which has served several times as both support and resistance during the topping process. Closing any lower would retrace more than 61.8% of the Double Top back to April’s highs, and signal a much larger downleg underway. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 110.65.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Maybe a bigger pause can refresh. Tuesday’s extra day of consolidating was followed by a gap down Wednesday. After filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close, the session closed under the morning’s low. This is normally a continuation pattern that produces at least one more lower session immediately, next targeting 4.46. Closing Thursday back above 4.69 might suggest otherwise.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still trying to bottom. The one problem with the two-day pivotal reversal was that its test of Friday’s pivotal low opened the door to a new low. But closing back above 73.23-73.30 would still be bullish. In fact, Wednesday’s new low did recover back above 73.23-73.30, but not permanently. This doesn’t affect the opinion of a bottom forming. Extending higher without delay would get every benefit of the doubt for momentum having reversed up.

Gold Jun (GCM) One potential bottom gives way to another. Without any indication of a bottom at Wednesday’s open, the drop extended. It extended sharply, fulfilling its 1508.00 target. Closing Thursday under 1505.60 would signal the leg extending to 1489.00 and 1480.00. Otherwise, any strength above 1520.00 would target 1530.00, and potentially 1577.00-1560.00.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Lacking aggression, higher highs are still possible. Wednesday’s gains weren’t aggressive. They were immediate at the open’s rally to 123’25. But that immediately stopped and ranged sideways. Perhaps this leg will only reach the 124’00 target, and not 125’06. Regardless, until 122’02 gives way through the close the bounce’s momentum remains intact.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).