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Daily Spot: Energies – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot: Energies

By Rod David | May 25, 2011 - 3:56 pm

A weekly summary of one complex, including daily updates of other developments elsewhere.[pay]

Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Ready to rock, or else to roll over. New relative highs up to 101.63 probed the two-week old range’s upper-end. Unless reversed immediately back under 99.35 to launch a new downleg targeting 88.75, the bounce is targeting 103.00 A close above 103.75 would trigger a new upleg.

Natural Gas Jun (NGM) Just waiting for an updraft. Tuesday’s modest dip down to 4.27 was recovered through the close, and Wednesday extended it back to the range’s 4.38 upper-end. Any fresh high would be credible for extending to the next higher targets at 4.50 and 4.80.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) No harm, no foul, no rush. Wednesday’s opening strength wasn’t too modest, but it didn’t gain any traction. It was reversed instead, back into negative territory. The reversal was no less modest than the opening strength, and also did not gain traction, as the session ended the day ranging narrowly around unchanged. That is essentially three days of selling pressure since peaking at Monday’s opening gap up. The rally can resume now without delay, if it intends to resume at all.

Gold Jun (GCM) Island hopping? Wednesday ended largely unchanged after extending slightly higher overnight, while other metals were rallying more strongly. This repeats the potential for gapping down under 1319.00 at Thursday’s open to form an Island out of Tuesday and Wednesday’s ranging. The corrective bounce’s trend otherwise remains up.

30-year Treasury Jun (USM) Big time distribution, or else. Despite probing new highs overnight up to 125’23, the rally’s 125’06 target again held as resistance through the close. So much chipping away at its resistance eventually makes an actually rally effort all but obligatory. Regardless, a downleg wouldn’t be triggered without closing under 124’20.

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Daily Spot coverage schedule is: Currencies (Mon), Metals (Tue), Energies (Wed), Rates (Thu), Weekender (Fri).

Posted in Daily Spot